Introduction
The global art market is seeing a shift towards favorable buying conditions, according to a new report by Bank of America. Titled “Art Market Update Fall 2024: Opportunity Knocks?”, the report suggests that collectors can expect improved opportunities thanks to factors such as reduced auction estimates, gallery discounts, and interest rate cuts. Upcoming events, including next week’s New York fall auctions and Art Basel Miami in December, are expected to see increased collector participation.
Auction Trends Indicate Slower Bidding Competition
The report highlights a slowdown in bidder competition at auctions, allowing collectors to purchase works at more affordable prices than in recent years. “The anticipated favorable buying conditions come on the heels of lower-than-expected art sales in the secondary market during the first half of the year,” the report notes. Auction prices in 2024 were only 1 percent above their aggregated mid-estimates—the smallest increase in over seven years.
One sector particularly affected is the emerging artist market, which has seen a sharp decline in sales totals. Sotheby’s The Now sale, once a hotspot for record-breaking bids, has witnessed a 55 percent drop since its 2022 peak. An example cited is Colombian artist María Berrío’s La Cena (2012), which sold for $1.5 million in 2022 but fetched only $441,000 at Christie’s in 2024—a 71 percent drop.
Latin American Artists Gain Momentum
While the emerging artist market faces challenges, the Latin American art market is experiencing growth. Sales of works by Latin American artists, both historical and contemporary, have increased by over 50 percent above pre-pandemic levels, generating more than $250 million between 2020 and 2023. The report attributes this surge to international collectors seeking diverse and historically significant works.
Galleries Navigate a Challenging Landscape
The current market correction, fueled by high inflation, interest rate fluctuations, and geopolitical unrest, has created a buyer’s market. According to Drew Watson, Bank of America’s head of art services, collectors now hold more negotiating power when dealing with gallerie. “Galleries face a critical choice: adapt to the new market reality or risk accumulating unsold inventory,” Watson said. Collectors are increasingly leveraging their knowledge of market trends to negotiate terms, including skipping waitlists, removing resale restrictions, and securing price discounts.
Art as a Wealth Strategy for Younger Collectors
The report also highlights a growing trend among younger generations who view art as an integral part of their wealth management strategy. A recent Bank of America Private Bank study revealed that 56 percent of collectors now consider art a part of their overall wealth strategy, with 98 percent of millennial and Gen Z collectors agreeing. The estimated value of art and collectibles is projected to reach $2.8 trillion by 2026, comprising over 10 percent of ultra-high-net-worth individuals’ portfolios.
Election Uncertainty Looms Over the Art Market
The recent U.S. presidential election, which saw Donald Trump return to power, could have a significant impact on the art market. Historically, marquee sales during election years have contracted sharply, raising concerns about the upcoming fall auctions. “Today’s market is already vulnerable, with auction totals in the first half of 2024 hitting their lowest point since the pandemic,” the report states. Questions about fiscal and monetary policies under the new administration, as well as potential political uncertainty, could deter buyers and sellers until the situation stabilises.
As the art world prepares for the final months of 2024, the report underscores challenges and opportunities, marking a pivotal moment for collectors and galleries alike.
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